Gold’s Discovery Deficit: Why Africa Must Lead the Next Exploration Wave

By MiningFocus Africa Editorial Team

Despite gold prices soaring past $3,000/oz., the global mining sector continues to lean on legacy assets for reserve growth. According to S&P Global’s latest annual analysis, the industry added just three new major gold discoveries in 2024—none of which were truly new. These deposits, discovered decades ago, only recently met the 2-million-oz. threshold to qualify as “major.”

This trend raises critical questions for Africa’s mining future: Can the continent break the global stagnation in gold discoveries? And will African nations seize the moment to lead a new era of exploration?

Global Exploration in Retreat

S&P’s data reveals a troubling pattern:
• Exploration budgets fell 15% in 2023 and 7% in 2024, ending a growth streak that began in 2017.
• Grassroots exploration now accounts for just 19% of total budgets—down from 50% in the mid-1990s.
• More than half (56%) of initial resource announcements between 2020–2024 came from existing projects, not new terrain.

The result? Smaller, lower-quality discoveries. The average size of new deposits over the past five years was 4.4 million oz., compared to 7.7 million oz. in the previous decade. None of the recent finds rank among the world’s top 30.

Africa’s Opportunity: From Legacy to Leadership

Africa holds a unique position in this global landscape. With vast underexplored regions, rich geological potential, and a growing appetite for beneficiation and ESG-aligned development, the continent could become the epicenter of the next gold discovery wave.

But to do so, African stakeholders must:

• Reignite grassroots exploration through targeted incentives and public-private partnerships
• De-risk frontier regions using digital mapping, AI-driven geoscience, and regional data harmonization
• Mobilize junior explorers, especially women-led and community-based ventures, with access to affordable finance
• Align exploration with sustainability, ensuring that new projects meet ESG benchmarks from the outset

Strategic Outlook: Beyond the Price Rally

While high prices may attract short-term interest, S&P warns that spending alone won’t revive discovery rates. The industry must shift its mindset—from expanding known deposits to boldly venturing into untested ground.

For Africa, this is more than a mining imperative—it’s a development opportunity. By leading the charge in gold exploration, the continent can unlock new jobs, catalyze infrastructure, and reshape its role in global value chains.

MiningFocus Africa View

Africa’s gold sector stands at a crossroads. The global discovery drought is a wake-up call—not a death knell. With the right mix of innovation, investment, and inclusive policy, African nations can turn this moment into a golden era of exploration.
The world may be running out of new gold—but Africa isn’t.