Oil Price Surge Threatens African Aviation and Agriculture, Warns Aliko Dangote

Rising global oil prices are emerging as a major risk to Africa’s economic stability, with potential disruptions across aviation and agriculture, according to Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Group.

Speaking at the Semafor World Economy Summit, Dangote warned that volatility linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could have far-reaching consequences for key sectors already operating under pressure.

Aviation sector under strain

Africa’s aviation industry is among the most exposed to fuel price shocks, given its heavy reliance on imported aviation fuel and vulnerability to currency fluctuations.

Dangote cautioned that sustained increases in oil prices could push many airlines toward financial distress, with some already considering suspending operations. Sharp intraday price swings in global oil markets are making cost planning increasingly difficult for carriers, raising concerns about sector-wide sustainability.

Fertiliser costs threaten agricultural output

Beyond aviation, the impact on agriculture is becoming increasingly pronounced. Fertiliser prices have surged significantly in recent months, more than doubling and placing additional pressure on farmers ahead of key planting seasons.

Higher input costs risk reducing fertiliser application rates, potentially lowering crop yields and tightening food supply across the continent. This comes at a time when many African countries are already dealing with supply chain disruptions and climate-related production challenges.

Dangote emphasised that government intervention, including targeted subsidies, may be necessary to stabilise the sector and support farmers through the current cycle.

Inflation risks build across economies

The combined effect of rising fuel and agricultural input costs is expected to feed into broader inflationary pressures, particularly in food and transport.

Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the South African Reserve Bank, signalled a more proactive stance on inflation, warning that policymakers must act early to prevent price shocks from spreading through the economy.

He noted that the current environment represents a “sequence of shocks,” with energy and agricultural inputs driving cost increases across multiple sectors. Prolonged pressure on oil prices — potentially remaining near or above $100 per barrel — could weaken currencies and force tighter monetary policy.

Geopolitics adds uncertainty to recovery

While a diplomatic resolution involving major global powers could stabilise markets, Dangote cautioned that supply chain disruptions may persist even in a best-case scenario. Delays in logistics and trade flows mean that price normalisation is unlikely to be immediate.

Outlook: dual pressure on growth and food security

The current oil market volatility highlights Africa’s exposure to external shocks, particularly in energy and agriculture — two sectors critical to economic stability and food security.

As governments balance inflation control with growth support, the situation underscores the urgency of strengthening local production capacity, improving supply chain resilience, and reducing dependence on imported inputs.