Barrick unveils $1bn buy-back as share “overly weighed” by Mali

Mark Bristow, CEO, Barrick Gold

BARRICK Gold on Wednesday renewed a $1bn share buy-back programme believing it had been overly punished by events in Mali where its Loulo-Gounkoto mine is suspended amid a dispute with the country’s military government.

“While ongoing issues in Mali remain an investor concern, which have overly weighed on the share price, Barrick’s fundamental value proposition has never been stronger,” said CEO Mark Bristow in comments to the group’s fourth quarter and full year numbers.

Barrick reported a 69% increase in net earnings to $2.14bn for the 12 months ended December, or $1.26/share. Shares in the company increased nearly five percent in early New York trade. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is up only 12% compared to 19% and 35% gains for rivals Newmont and AngloGold Ashanti respectively.

Barrick repurchased $498m of its shares under its 2024 repurchase program of which $354m was in the final quarter of the year – far in excess of the $55m expected by Scotia Bank gold analysts led by Tanya Jakusconek.

“Net-net, we view the results as slightly negative to the shares given overall weaker gold/copper production guidance for 2025 despite better costs guidance,” said Jakusconek in a report. Barrick guided to output of between 3.15 and 3.5 million oz (2024: 3.91m oz) for 2025, excluding production from Loulo-Gounkoto.

Commenting on Mali, Bristow said “a mutually beneficial solution can be found”. A report by Bloomberg News earlier today said discussions with government had, however, been suspended. The talks centre on Barrick signing up to the government’s 2023 Mining Code and that it pay the state a $195m settlement fee to reopen Loulo-Gounkoto.

Adopting the new mining law could give Mali larger stakes and royalties in Loulo-Gounkoto while potentially reducing the duration of the license for Barrick, based on its provisions, said Bloomberg News. The newswire added that the situation on the suspended talks could change at any time. If a deal is finalised, Mali could return the seized gold and release four Barrick employees detained since late November.

Bank of America analysts have a neutral rating on Barrick. Commenting on the numbers today, the bank said it liked Barrick “for its solid asset-base and excellent exploration potential but see it constrained by ‘resource nationalism’ in Mali, as well as difficulties at Pueblo Viejo”, the group’s Dominican Republic project.

Attributable copper production for 2025 has been guided by Barrick to between 200,000 and 230,000 tons (2024: 195,000 tons) as the Lumwana mine expansion in Zambia builds momentum.