Historic Gold and Silver Rally Extends Into Year-End

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Precious metals surged to unprecedented levels on Friday, capping a historic end-of-year rally driven by geopolitical tensions and weakness in the US dollar. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium all reached new highs, underscoring the strength of investor demand and the resilience of physical markets.

Spot gold set a fresh record at $4,540 per ounce, while the most active US gold futures for February delivery climbed as high as $4,584 before settling at $4,555 in afternoon trading. Silver also staged a dramatic advance, with March futures in New York jumping more than 9% to $78.30. Platinum rose 10% to $2,475 per ounce, and palladium surged 13%, adding $234 to vault past the $2,000 threshold.

Gold is now on track for its largest annual gain since 1979, rising more than 70% in 2025. The rally has been fueled by strong central bank purchases and heavy inflows into exchange-traded funds. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world’s largest physical gold ETF, expanded holdings by more than 20% this year. According to the World Gold Council, physically-backed gold ETFs are set for their biggest inflow since 2020, attracting $82 billion, equivalent to 749 tonnes, by December 22.

Market analysts point to sustained physical demand and heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic risk as the key drivers. John Feeney of Guardian Vaults in Sydney noted that momentum is being reinforced rather than capped, suggesting conviction beyond speculative trading. Gold’s resilience was evident when prices rebounded quickly after retreating from a previous peak of $4,381 in October. Several banks, including Goldman Sachs, forecast further gains in 2026, with a base-case scenario of $4,900 per ounce.

Mitsubishi analysts highlighted that investors have resisted taking profits despite the festive season, a sign of confidence in the rally’s durability. “With precious metals making record prices so late in the year, perhaps the biggest takeaway is that investors have not treated the festive break as an occasion to take profits,” they told Reuters.

Silver’s performance has been even more dramatic, soaring 160% in 2025. The rally has been driven by speculative inflows and supply disruptions across major trading hubs following a historic short squeeze in October. London vaults have seen significant inflows since then, but much of the available silver remains concentrated in New York. Traders are awaiting the outcome of a US Commerce Department investigation that could result in tariffs or trade restrictions on the metal.

Manav Modi, commodity analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, emphasized the importance of physical supply in sustaining the rally. “You have a lot of trades or positions on paper: now you need to cover those with physical volume — and there’s not much supply to cover that demand. You need to power the paper silver with the actual silver,” he told Bloomberg.

With gold, silver, platinum and palladium all breaking records, the precious metals market is closing 2025 on a historic note, setting the stage for continued volatility and opportunity in the year ahead.