Is Africa Winning in the Critical Minerals Race? Mining Leaders Respond to Geopolitical Shifts

Africa holds an estimated 30% of the world’s critical minerals, placing the continent at the center of intensifying geopolitical competition among the China, the United States and European Union member states seeking to secure supply chains.

At a high-level gathering in Cape Town last week, African mining ministers outlined how this rivalry is reshaping national strategies — and how governments intend to translate global demand into long-term economic leverage.

Rising Competition Strengthens Africa’s Bargaining Power

Gwede Mantashe, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, warned that geopolitical tensions are escalating as major economies compete for mineral access.

“We are seeing high geopolitical tensions driven by increased competition. We are willing to protect our resources,” Mantashe said.

For major producers such as South Africa — the world’s largest producer of platinum group metals and chrome — coordinated supply management and strategic trade partnerships will be central to maintaining pricing power and global influence.

Meanwhile, Louis Watum Kabamba, Minister of Mines for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, framed global rivalry as a strategic opportunity.

The DRC — home to an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth and the world’s largest cobalt producer — is leveraging competition to negotiate infrastructure-linked investment and industrial development. In late 2025, the country partnered with the United States to boost mineral production, expand beneficiation capacity and strengthen trade ties.

“In our deal with the Americans, we are negotiating from a position of strength,” Kabamba said. “It is not about supplying raw materials — it is about building value.”

Paul Kabuswe, Zambia’s Minister of Mines, echoed the shift toward assertive negotiation as Zambia targets copper output of 3.1 million tons annually by 2031.

“Our focus is what benefits Zambia at the negotiating table. What matters is a win-win outcome,” Kabuswe said.

Investment Risks: Volatile Trade Regimes and Policy Fragmentation

Ministers acknowledged that unpredictable tariff regimes and shifting alliances present risks to African exporters.

“We have an unpredictable tariff regime,” Mantashe said, stressing the need to diversify trade partners and reduce exposure to unilateral policy changes.

Internal fragmentation also remains a constraint.

Emmanuel Armah-Kofi Buah, Ghana’s Minister of Lands and Natural Resources, called for stronger policy harmonization through frameworks such as the African Mining Vision.

“Africa’s integration is not just political — it is a strategic economic vision,” Buah said, emphasizing that uncoordinated legal frameworks weaken collective bargaining power.

Beneficiation and Regional Industrialization Take Center Stage

A dominant theme across discussions was the shift from extraction-led growth to value-added industrialization.

Gaudentia Krohne, Namibia’s Deputy Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy, described beneficiation as a national strategic imperative for Namibia.

“As demand rises, Namibia wants to position itself not merely as a supplier of raw materials, but a strategic partner for global investors,” Krohne said.

Henry Alake, Nigeria’s Minister of Solid Minerals Development, called for cross-border industrial corridors financed at a regional level.

“We don’t want corridors exporting raw materials. We want factories across borders creating employment and shared value,” Alake said.

Djami Diallo of Guinea added that blended public-private financing structures will be key to delivering long-term diversification strategies, including the country’s Simandou 2040 growth plan.

From Resource Supplier to Industrial Partner

Across the discussions, ministers signaled a coordinated shift in posture: Africa will no longer position itself solely as a raw materials supplier but as an emerging industrial partner seeking infrastructure, processing capacity and greater value retention.

The global race for critical minerals, they argued, presents leverage — but only if managed through coordinated production strategies, diversified partnerships and disciplined market engagement.

In a world defined by geopolitical realignment, Africa’s mineral wealth may offer unprecedented bargaining power. The question now is whether that leverage can be converted into lasting industrial transformation.