It’s Time Government Stepped Up to Global Mining Realities

Stepping carefully: Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe visiting the community affected by the Jagersfontein mine tailings dam burst on September 11. He later slammed a High Court decision that took jurisdiction of tailings dams away from the government.

For decades, early February has followed a familiar script for South Africa’s mining sector. Global mining executives descend on Cape Town for Mining Indaba, lament the country’s regulatory complexity and policy uncertainty, enjoy the hospitality—and then quietly deploy their capital elsewhere. Promises of reform follow, tensions flare between government and industry, and by the next year, little has changed.

That cycle is no longer sustainable.

The global mining landscape has shifted sharply, driven by intensifying competition for critical minerals and mounting geopolitical pressure. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the United States aggressively pursuing strategic mineral security, South Africa now finds itself under renewed international scrutiny. The margin for indecision has narrowed.

For Gwede Mantashe, and for government more broadly, the stakes are higher than ever. A continuation of business as usual—slow reform, public disputes, and fragmented policy signals—risks pushing South Africa further down the list of global mining destinations.

Lawlessness at the heart of the crisis

One of the most immediate challenges undermining investor confidence is the growing lawlessness around mining. Illegal mining has become entrenched, with communities increasingly displaced while the state appears unable—or unwilling—to assert control.

According to estimates by the Minerals Council South Africa, illegal mining costs the country more than R70 billion a year in lost gold sales, taxes and royalties, with between 30,000 and 40,000 illegal miners operating nationwide. Yet responses remain reactive, fragmented and largely ineffective.

For investors watching from abroad, the signal is clear: regulatory uncertainty is compounded by weak enforcement, eroding confidence in the state’s capacity to manage its own mineral endowment.

Policy uncertainty and missed alignment

Beyond security concerns, unresolved policy disputes continue to cloud the investment outlook. Chief among these is the long-running standoff over amendments to the Mineral Resources Development framework, including disagreements around ownership requirements for prospecting and exploration companies.

Government and industry do not need perfect alignment—but they do need a credible path to workable compromise. Prolonged public confrontation fuels uncertainty, delays investment decisions and reinforces the perception of a hostile operating environment.

This lack of alignment becomes even more problematic in the context of global competition for critical minerals. South Africa cannot afford to approach international partners divided, particularly when major powers are rapidly securing supply chains elsewhere.

Critical minerals and global positioning

In 2025, senior mining executives proposed engaging the US through access to South Africa’s critical minerals as part of a broader geopolitical and investment strategy. The proposal was rejected in favour of a more state-centric approach, further widening the rift between government and industry.

At the time, Neal Froneman, then CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater, warned that policy uncertainty and an adversarial tone were making South Africa increasingly unattractive to foreign capital—particularly from the US.

Whether one agrees with that assessment or not, the optics are damaging. Global investors want coherence, predictability and partnership. Public discord sends the opposite message.

A defining moment

As Mining Indaba delegates arrive once again, South Africa faces a defining moment. The country still possesses world-class mineral resources, deep expertise and established infrastructure. What it lacks—at least in perception—is unity of purpose.

Government and industry must present a credible, coordinated vision that addresses lawlessness, clarifies policy direction and positions South Africa strategically within the global critical minerals race. Without that, history will repeat itself: polite conversations, good wine, warm weather—and capital flowing elsewhere.

This time, the cost of inaction will be far higher than a missed conference opportunity. It will be a missed place in the future of global mining.